Sunday, October 19, 2014

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Four ways to beat Craps

  • Sunday, October 19, 2014
  • Mark Laechel
  • Hey everyone..Its time again for another craps system for you to make money on the next time you head to the boat, Vegas, or AC. For the last 15 years or so I have been a gambling enthusiast and have extensively studied the games of Roulette and Craps. For quite a few years I have been an armchair theoretical gambler who has tested thousands of gambling systems. Ive sat in front of the computer testing systems for quite possibly
    7000 hours plus. During times of stress its really helped my mind tackle the problem of how to win money at gambling. I've played craps in Atlantic City, Vegas and all the regional riverboats and this is the 4 ways that I've found to play effectively at the craps tables. I would suggest that you try these out on a free online simulator like at the one at wizardofodds.com to practice and bone up before you try the real thing. OK, lets get started!

    1) Hardways Walk up to a table that is over half full. Wait and see if there are any points being thrown. A good way to decide if the table is any good is if there are chips being bet on the table on the hardways, the point numbers, etc. Do the people at the table seem excited and chattering and having a good time? Or is the table somber and quiet like at a funeral? For this you will need to find a table 1/2 full and a table where there is people betting and not a blizzard of seven outs, with people looking around annoyed and muttering under their breath.  A simple indication that it is time to find another table is if people start cashing out and walking away and the table falls below 1/2 full. NO ONE walks away from a hot table.
    So, you have found a decent table and you buy your rack of chips. For this I would recommend $10,000. Yes I said $10,000. Seeing that this is a pretty steep price tag to get in with, I would recommend one of the other systems below in order to work up the money you need to bankroll this one. This is to protect you against the standard deviation of swings.
    A) Stand there and wait for a hardways to be thrown
    B) After you see a hardways, put 5 dollars down on all 4 hardways. Keep them going until a 7 gets thrown and its a new shooter. As you are in it and waiting for the 7, replace any of the hardways that get taken down with your current bet of 5 dollars. Also pocket or put to the side any winnings from any hardways that hit. Always keep all four hardways working with your current bet which is at this time 5 dollars each. Each time an easyways gets thrown, replace it again with your 5 dollar bet. You are working until the shooter sevens out. Sometimes when you are doing this, the shooter doesnt seven out for a while. He makes his point, the line gets paid, and he keeps the dice. Keep going with your hardways up until the shooter finally sevens out, all the while replacing any hardways bets that get taken down by easyways until he or she finally sevens out.
    C) When the shooter sevens out, all 4 bets on your hardways are swept away by the dealer and now you do nothing but stand there and wait until you see another hardways get thrown. This might be in a couple of rolls down the line by the next shooter or it could be several shooters later after 70 rolls. You stand there and wait until you see the hardways once again are thrown.
    D) When you again see a hardways, once again you put 5 bucks each up on all 4 hardways. This is set number 2. You leave them up working, replacing any 5 bucks that gets taken down by easyway throws, and taking any payoffs on hardways until the current shooter sevens out. (7s dont count on the come out. Again, the shooter might make a couple of points. Keep going until he sevens out and loses the dice).
    E) You then wait again until the next appearance of a hardway. Doenst matter if its the next shooter or if its a couple of shooter later or if the next shooter has a hot as hell roll, you stand there and wait until the next hardways hits.
    F) After the next hardways hits, you put 5 bucks on all 4 hardways. This is set number 3. Again, you wait until the current shooter 7s out, all the while replacing any 5 dollar bet hardways that go down while you wait for that 7 out.
    G) You repeat the above over and over, until you get to set number 10. This means that you have 10 different groups of times you have jumped in when you saw a hardways get thrown and you then bet with 5 bucks on each of the hardways replacing any that get taken down due to easyways thrown until you got a seven out.
    H) After set number 10 above, you are now going to do a second set of 10 this time using bets of 10 dollars each on all the the hardways. After that set of 10, you will increase to 15 each on all the hardways. After 10 more sets, up to 20, 25, etc.

    What we are going with the above in sets is using Mathematician Ion Saliu's system of statistical deviation to squeeze out a profit. I have found in my analysis that hardways statistically come out in clumps in the long run due to some of it having to do with chaos theory. In a mathematically even world, the hardways would show once every 10-15 times, but you will see that is far from reality. Quite often you will have a dry spell of hardways for 70-100 rolls and then suddenly you will have a grouping of hardways and sometimes even an avalanche. My system takes advantage of this by forcing you to sit out dry spells so your money is not getting burned and has you in during hot streaks. When the table starts to seven out too much people will start to wander away from the table and that triggers your "The table just fell below the half full of people" trigger so that means you cash in your chips and look for another table. You don't want to be leaning into a punch. Find another table that is more than half full with chips on the felt and numbers being thrown.

    2) Seven system The seven is the most common number that can be thrown at the craps table and is the number that works for the casino. Why not have it work for you as well? For this you will be betting on 'Any 7' and 'Any Craps' usually found above and under the hardways at the center of the table. For this system we will seek out cold rolls and avoid hot rolls.
    1) Walk up to the table, cash in for chips. I recommend 2,000 dollars. You want a 10 dollar minimum table for this. A 15 or higher min will climb up too high for your bank.
    2) As soon as a new shooter gets the dice, jump in. Put 10 on the 'any 7' and 10 on 'any craps'.
    3) The shooter rolls. If no seven or no craps gets thrown, your money is gone That's roll #1.
    4) Now increase your bets by 1 dollar, so now put up 11 bucks on each: The 'any 7' and 'any craps'
    5)You will stick in there for 6 rolls, all the while increasing your bet by 1 dollar each roll of the dice. If you hit an any craps, just take the payoff and continue. One dollar more on the next bets of the 'any 7' and 'any craps'
    6) If at any time during the six rolls the shooter sevens out, take your payoff and its on to the next shooter, the count restarting at "1". You will then bet 6 rolls with that shooter, all the while increasing your two bets by 1 dollar each roll.
    7) If the shooter rolls six different rolls and does not hit a seven, you stop, That means he is having a hot roll and you stop betting until he finally sevens out whether that is 4 rolls later or 40 minutes later. The shooter by the way may make his point inside of your 6 rolls betting on that shooter. Fine. As soon as you get to the 6th roll with no 7, stop betting on him and wait for the next shooter (he sevens out). If during the 6 rolls he makes a point number (the line wins) and now hes coming out and makes a 7 on the come out, take the money but stay on that shooter for the 6 rolls. Only stop before the 6 rolls are over if his 7 is a 7 out and its on to the next shooter.
    8) The bet keeps advancing 1 dollar each time. So for shooter number one, your six bets on each the 'any 7' and the 'any craps' will be $10-$10, $11-$11, $12-$12, $13-$13, $14-$14, $15-$15, $16-$16. (That is if there was no seven out thrown.) When the next shooter gets the dice, simply resume on the last bet amount you were using and continue upward, adding a dollar each time to the bets.
    So for example, you start on shooter A. You bet $10 on the 7, $10 on any craps, He rolls a 5. Nothing, bets get taken away. On roll#2, andyou bet $11 on the 'any 7 and $11 on 'any craps'. He rolls craps, a 3. You get paid, but you are still betting on his rolls. Roll#3, you are now betting $12 and $12, He sevens out. You didnt make it all 6 rolls with him because he 7'ed out and the dice get passed to the next shooter and you start over with 6 rolls with them, with the first roll you are betting on being the last amount you bet, so roll #1 would be $13 and $13, etc.
    9) To protect yourself against the swings that will get bigger and bigger as you do this, if at any time after a shooter sevens out your chips on the rack are +$30, start over your bets on the 'any 7' and 'any craps' at $10. Sometimes things may not be going good, and your bets might get up over 30-40 dollars each.
    10) You can see how this stops you from betting into any hot streaks. Statistically you should see a 7 out once every 5-6 rolls.
    11) The opposite of the above system, you want to find a table with just a few guys at it that is having a cold streak. People are pissed off, walking away, looking around muttering. Cold tables are a dime a dozen and are very easy to find. This system will filter out hot streaks and prevent you from betting into them. If the table remains consistantly hot, find another cold table. If find that the best time to find a cold table is in the mid to late afternoon. For some reason tables dont heat up until after 5pm. I have no idea why. If you walk around Vegas or Atlantic City on a Thurs-Fri-Sat night you can find lots of tables that are hot jammed full of people screaming winning money. Go to those same tables at 2-3 pm and you will see people losing their shirts, dumping thier factory paychecks. You want a table under half full and cold with the stick shouting "Seven Out!" with people groaning for this system.

    3) The Field System In this system we are going to be using the field bet as our primary bet and numbers and odds as our run off secondary.
    A) We walk up to a table that is half full or more with numbers being thrown and chips on the felt. No depressed tables less than half full of people. If at a table that suddenly turns and suddenly goes cold and people start cashing in and leaving, you leave too and find another table.
    B) Place a 10 dollar bet ( you are at a 10 min table. Find one.) on the field. If it hits, bet the same again on the field. If it loses, increase your bet by one dollar. If it loses, you just lost two bets in a row and you sit there watching for another field number to be thrown. Could be right away, or could be a while of nothing but point numbers When another field number is thrown, you get in again and increase your bet by one dollar from your previous bet. Every time you lose a field bet, its the last bet plus one dollar. When you lose two in a row, you sit out until another field bet number is thrown then get back in plus one dollar on your last bet. Keep doing this. You never lose more than two bets in a row because you are then sitting out after the second loss. This is to prevent you from getting hammered during the times during streaks of no field numbers being thrown, just point numbers.
    C) Now while you are doing the above, that is, adding plus one dollar after each loss and sitting out after two losses, jumping back in after a field shows again, you will be doing something else: Constantly monitoring how many chips you have on your rack like a obsessive compulsive Accountant. The reason for this is because every time you go into the plus collumn, that is everytime there are more chips on your rack than you came with you will be placing an additional bet.
    For example..you showed up with 1000 dollars to the table and you started playing the above. As you are playing, your chip balance wavers around, at one time you have 958 dollars, then you drift down to 931 dollars, then you start hitting some field numbers, then a 12 and then a 2 and suddenly you look down and you have 1002 dollars on your rack. Even with +1 over 1000, this triggers item D) below.
    D) You have just gone over the amount you walked in with, as in you look down and you have $1001 or 1002 or 1028, etc on your rack. Heres what you do now.
    You are currently betting whatever number you got up to on the field bet as you have been adding +1 dollar to your last bet after a loss. You are currently at 19, or 25, or 17 or 32, or whatever number you are at.
    You will then simply make a come bet of that current number (or a line bet if a number hasnt been established yet at the table) along with your next field bet. Now you have your next field bet out there on the field, and the same denomination of money that your field bet is currently at on either the come or on the line, depending if there is a number currently in play by the current shooter or if the shooter hasnt come out yet. As soon as you put out that come or line bet along with that field bet, look down at your rack and count. Chances are you are now back below your 1000, seeing that you just put both those bets out there. Now wait for the next roll. If the come bet goes to a number or the comeout roll goes to a number, fine, your second bet is sitting out there waiting on a decision. If your field bet just lost, put up another field bet with +1 added to it. If the field bet won, again look at the chips on your rack. If you are above $1000 even by a chip, then add odds to your come or line bet in the same amount as the line or come bet altered slightly of course for the number you are putting odds on (4,5,6,8,9,10).
    You are still playing the field while you do this, sitting out after two losses, jumping in after a field number, while adding +1 to the pile. While you have a point number out there with money on it, you are watching your chips count on the rack. Every time you get over the amount you came in with, even by a dollar, you then add more money on your odds of the number you have working in the amount that is equal to the amount of money you are currently using on your field bet. Every time your money goes under your starting amount even by a dollar while you are doing the field bets and currently have a number with odds working you will stop adding odds to the number. Every time your total on your rack goes above your starting amount (in this case 1001) you will add more money to the odds pile in the amount of your current bet on the field.
    In this way you are building a tremendous bomb via your odds bet on the number as it grows and grows, and if it goes off, (number hits) you can make a lot of money. The above can be a bit confusing, so thats why we are going to do a sample below and go step by step:

    Walk up to table, cash 1000.
    We put 10 dollars up on the field. First roll is a 6. Our field loses. We put up 11 dollars on the field. It loses. We do nothing and wait for a field number. We check our rack, we have 979 dollars on it. The next number is a 8, we do nothing. The next is a 9. Thats a field number. We place a bet on the field for 12 dollars. It hits, we take the money. Now we have 981 on the rack. We remain with 12 dollars because we just won, we put that back up on the field. Shooter rolls a 3. We win. Now thats 993 on the rack. We bet $12 on the field again. It hits. Now we put those winnings on the rack: we have 1004 dollars. Now the shooter already came out and he is shooting for the 6, the point is currently 6, so we don't do the line bet because its not a come out, we use the come bet. Our current amount we are using is 12 on the field so we once again bet 12 dollars on the field and we use the same amount that we are currently betting on the field and we put $12 in the come. The next roll is 5. We lose our field bet and our come bet goes up on the 5. We now put $13 in the field. We lose. Now we dont bet the field because we just lost two in a row, and we still have our money on 5 as the shooter is trying to still make his point, which is currently 6. The next roll is a 8. No action on our part, we are still waiting for a field number and our come bet on five just sits there. The next roll is 12. We jump back in with a field bet of $14. The next roll is 3. We take our winnings but are still below the 1000 dollar mark on our rack of chips. The next roll is 12. After we take our winnings and place them on the rack, we notice that we are now above 1000 dollars again. So we are currently at 14 dollars betting on the field, so we take 14 dollars (adjust it to 15 dollars) and place it as odds on our come bet which is sitting on the five, and we also bet $14 on the field. Our field hits again, and we check: if we have over 1000 on the rail after we take our field payoff, we once again put another $14 dollars in odds on top of the odds already on the 5. If the five finally hits after we have been feeding it odds over and over again because our fields have been hitting (and were over 1000 on the rack which was the signal to place the current field bet amount as odds on our come), we could win a lot of money.
    This continues until we make a set amount of money, either +50 or +100 on our rack over what we came in with, When we are either at $1050 or $1100 on our rack, THAT will be the new set point.
    That means instead of 1000 that we were using all along, now it will be 1050 or 1100 as the new base number that will tell us if we are putting odds behind numbers in addition to our field betting.
    This is a pretty solid system, and its good that the field is the thing that is generating the money that allows us to bet on numbers and put odds behind them. 1000 dollars to start should be safe. Plus if you are at a decent table things should move along pretty quickly.

    4) The Don't System This system is a bit easier and it also has the 7 working for you. For this system you will be looking for tables that are under half full and look cold. You want few chips on the felt and you want to see people looking dazed and somber.
    A) Walk up and cash in 1000 for chips
    B) Wait until the current shooter is done, as in he sevens out and the dice goes to the next shooter
    C) Place a 10 dollar bet on the pass line and at the same time place a 10 dollar bet on the don't pass line
    D)Wait for a number to be established. Before that happens, the shooter might roll a 7 or 11, in which case your dont loses and your do wins. Simply bet 10 again on the dont pass and 10 on the pass. Your don't line bet might win if the shooter rolls craps while hes coming out, again: rebet 10 on the line and 10 on the dont pass. We are waiting here for the shooter to roll a point number so the puck comes out and goes to a point number.
    E) Once the shooter does roll a point number, now take double odds on the dont and place a 10 dollar bet on the don't come. The double dont odds on your dont pass line bet are protecting your 10 dollar bet on the dont come. As in if a 7 rolls the next roll, you are protected.
    F) The shooter rolls again, and rolls a point number. Your dont come goes over to it, and now you remove your double dont pass line odds. You are allowed to pick them up.
    G) What you have just managed to do is almost totally eliminated the house edge, and now you have a dont pass number hanging out there for almost free with the most commonly rolled number, the 7 as your friend. The odds are in your favor to win. You now place double odds behind your dont bet and wait until either the shooter picks your number off, or what will most likely happen at this point, a seven out.

    Now what you do is kind of like the hardways system, you are going to be using sets of 10. For the first 10 times your base bet is going to be 10 bucks: 10 on the pass line, 10 on the don't pass line, double odds on the don't pass while you put down 10 bucks on the don't, then take down your don't odds after the new don't come is established, and place double odds behind that. After 10 different shooters, you increase your base bet to 15 dollars. Then after 10 of those, you increase to 15 dollars, etc.
    Every time you achieve +50 overall dollars on your rack, you can start all over again at your 10 dollar base bet at bet 1 of 10.

    Well there you are. I myself would recommend that you start in the early afternoon and go scouting for ice cold tables and use the dont system. Get your bankroll up +$500 to +$1000 dollars and then you can switch over to the Field Bet System at a decent table with decent rolls. From that point after you are up about +$2000, you can do the 7 system.
    If at any time you have people or most likely stick people messing with you because you are betting the pass line and the don't pass line at the same time, leave. You don't need the additional pressure, there are other tables. Stick people and personnel at the tables all have different personalities as well as pit bosses and casinos for that matter. Some casinos will tell you that you cant bett the pass and the don't pass at the same time because they don't have enough of an edge against you. Fine, find another casino. I was at Trump casino once about 10 years ago in Indiana and a few of us were standing there at the craps table not betting because the table was really cold. We were all waiting for the dice to pass around the table to a few hot shooters that had decent rolls earlier in the game. The pit boss then said "You can't stand there and not bet. If you have chips and you are at the rail, you have to bet on the line every roll."  Which by the way is bullshit. A few of us scoffed and colored in our chips. If you get something like that, leave. By the way that casino is now defunct. Serves them right.
    Try these out for a spin on an online free practice site. Again, I use wizardofodds.com. Good luck.
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    Tuesday, October 14, 2014

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    Well, I've been away surfing the Internet and I think that I've finally found the end of the Internet.

  • Tuesday, October 14, 2014
  • Mark Laechel
  • So Ive been away for a while and I decided that I was going to find some crazy stuff online in order to get you to whittle away some time. Lets get into some highlights.

    1) Want your own Lost in Space Robot from the 60's T.V. series in your house? This company makes officially sanctioned replicas from the CBS show. How CRAZY is that? I couldn't believe how nuts
    this was, they even have videos of the completed robots and everything. I also believe that there is available remote controlling so you can really freak out your friends. This is what I've been thinking about: I'm 46. I watched reruns of this show non stop on Sunday mornings in the mid to late 70's; the show aired originally in the mid 60's a year or two before I was born. But the 1970s were chock full of reruns from the 50's and 60's as they finally discovered the power of syndication (think I love Lucy, Pettycoat Junction, F Troop, the Dick Van Dyke Show, etc) and Lost in Space was no exception. So, I think I'm going to:
    1) Drop 24,000 grand on one B-9 Lost in Space Robot
    2) Have it delivered to my house, take it out of the box, etc. set it up
    3) Put it in a closet behind the couch
    4) Invite a friend over, watch the game, have a few beers
    5) Push a button, have the robot come out of the closet and come up behind my friend 
    6) Wait until he goes for a swig of beer, then push a button and have robot yell "Warning Warning"
    7) Insanity ensues
    8) Fell the warmth and glow of the best 24 large a guy can spend. How f$#kin cool is that??!?

    You can check this out for yourself at http://www.lostinspacerobot.com/video.html

    As an aside, for Lost in Space fans only, I finally found someone that is cooler than George Clooney:
    Check out the guy who played the head of the Robinson Family, Guy Williams in his Screen Test Audition for the show while they were casting. VERY much like Clooney...check it here: http://youtu.be/6YjbUKoQBps

    2) I found this one on Tumblr: Ever have a wave of nostalgia sweep over you and you go to youtube to find a video from back in the day? Well this site takes care of all of that for you and puts it all in one place. Check out the Nostalgia machine. Just tell them the year you graduated from high school, and bam. All the songs and videos for that year that were big on the charts.
    I went to this site and typed in 1986, and clicked the button. Boom. An entire page of videos and songs that I forgot. You'll find yourself looking down the page of videos and songs for that year and saying to yourself "Oh, Yeah! That one!" and you'll keep saying that as you scroll down.
    The value that this page brings is usually you will remember a song from your youth and youll go look for it on YouTube. This site dishes them all up at one time and one place.
    http://thenostalgiamachine.com/

    3) This one is interesting...Ever sit around and wonder if there is a life after death or its just a big long dirt nap? That question has kept a lot of people up at night, especially after the age of 45 when one realizes that there is probably more in the rearview mirror than out in front. You've heard stories of life after death, people returning from beyond on the operating table, ghosts, stuff on cable shows, etc. Here is a site hosted by a lawyer who argues for his case of life after death. Its a pretty strong case if you read his page. Very absorbing with many links. If this is your bag, be prepared to spend some time here.
    www.victorzammit.com

    4) Its a tough world out there. And You need to be an Asshole to Excel in this World. Here is why:
    http://elitedaily.com/money/entrepreneurship/asshole-excel-world/

    5)All about Social Value and the standing you have with your friends. This is from a pickup site, but it is right on the money with interactions between all people. Quite the eye opener.
    http://www.girlschase.com/content/social-value-and-value-imbalances
    Here by the way is another great site explaining social value:
    http://stopyourshyness.com/blog/social-value-explained/

    6) I grew up in Arcades in the 1980's, I was right there from the beginning with Pong in the 70's, Space Invaders in 1978, and Asteroids and PacMan in 1980. Back in the day there would be a line of guys standing in line to play the game much like there would be a line for the drinking fountain, with quarters lined up against the plastic ridge on the name plate on top of the machine. Those were fun times, and a few years ago I was at a ManCave store that had one of these machines sitting near the entrance, called Arcade Legends. This new one is version 3, and any self respecting ManCave should have this in it. A great place to put it is right next to the bar. Right from the Chicago Gaming Company.
    http://www.arcadelegends.com/

    7) How to increase your IQ by 2 points a day doing Dual N-back Training.
    Pretty wild. This claims that your brain can be rewired and the neuronal connections are not fixed from birth but through specific stimulation done 1 hour a day, a 2 pt gain in IQ can be realized. Ever see the movie limitless? The higher IQ you have, the easier life is. You go and train in the gym, now train your brain. http://parityhedgesystemcraps.blogspot.com/2014/06/how-to-increase-your-iq.html

    That's all for now, that should captivate you for a while!

    Peace,
    Mark




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    Monday, October 13, 2014

    0

    The Dangers of DayTrading (Or the danger of taking $70,000 and trading in the stockmarket with your computer at home)

  • Monday, October 13, 2014
  • Mark Laechel
  • DayTrading: The Risks and Dangers Thereof

    A Brief History

    In the 1950's and 1960's any day trading was done by professionals, and even then with the analogue systems of the day with their order placement it was far from today's daytrading system placing that can be done in one second. Some wealthy individuals went to off room trading centers that were connected to brokers and their boys on the floor from large company trading rooms.
    So when somebody was looking to purchase a stock that they've been following they would contact their broker and buy shares in a company. Your average man would typically stay with his buy for a minimum of several months, and a lot of people would invest the old fashioned way: they would just park their money in a stock and forget about it.
    My friends grandfather bought several thousand shares of GM in the late 1920's and just sat on it for 50 years. I remember in the 80's he was worth quite a bit of money through his grandparents inheritance. (I hope that he sold it before the GM collapse.). My uncle bought Walgreen stock in the early 70's and he rode out Walgreens' expansion for the next 4 decades and now he has a bit of coin himself.
    The Market Makers, or the individual or company the provides liquidity for the trading of a particular stock, sets the buy and sell point of the stock they are working, and they take the difference between the spread of the bid and ask in order to make money for themselves, much like a bookie. In the 1950's and 1960's since people weren't coming in and out of stocks that often, spreads were wide, and market makers were enjoying little competition while working, making a decent living. People would purchase stock and hold it for a year or longer. Funds would purchase stock and hold. And everything was good for the investor and the Marketmakers.

    The Internet and the late 1990's-The New Frontier of Daytrading

    After a few years of the emergence of the Internet, online trading showed up with companies like E trade, Webstreet and WeathWeb, which allowed traders to maintain their own accounts without brokers, buying and selling themselves. This was the emergence of daytrading. Commissions dropped drastically because there was no full service brokers with having your own online trading account.
    People then got the idea that they could trade in and out several times a week, monitoring the internet full time for market activity instead of watching it at the end of the day on the news.
    And then people started trading every hour, then every five minutes, then every minute, trying to scalp an eighth of a point or even a sixteenth. 
    That unfortunately for everyone, was taking the money right out of the market makers pockets.

    The Market Makers Go To War

    Suddenly the market makers money machine was being stolen by the thousands of day traders that were sitting around in their basements on their computer trading in and out every few minutes. This is exactly what the market makers were doing for the last 50 years but now due to the change in technology, everyone was doing it. So the market makers decided to do something about it.
    You see, the market makers have a secret weapon. They can control the price of the stock. They decide which orders they want to fill by looking at the sitting buy orders and the sitting sell orders. Imagine playing tennis against an opponent that is not only good, but can control the ball midair. You take a swing at the ball with your racket, and the ball controlled by your opponent stops dead, does a figure eight around your racket, and suddenly flies the other way. You can never win against such an opponent. (For the rest of this series, go to www.the1045report.com)
    This caused people in the late 90's and early 2000's to lose their nest eggs and they ended up day trading it away. The Market Makers would look down at their order boards and identify traders that they felt were sitting at home trying to scalp fractions of a point by swinging a decent chunk of money in and out several times an hour or even minute by minute. They would fill the traders order and then promptly cause the market to go the wrong way by filling orders contrary to the need of the daytrader via his or her position. This would shake the day trader out of their position and force them to sell and take a loss rather than stay in and take a bigger loss.
    This didn't go unnoticed by the media. In the early 2000's many newspapers ran stories of people that cashed in their IRA's, sold their businesses, or borrowed money in order to be a full time daytrader. 
    And then they promptly over the course of the next several months, lost their money. They lost their money in a rigged game: the market makers were controlling the ball. It was an expensive lesson. 

    The Flip Side of the Coin

    Some people might say, I'm staying out of the Market
    Maker's way, Im just going to buy and hold. Well that is almost taking a pair of dice and rolling them at a dice table: the more time that goes by from the time you make your purchase, the more of a chance chaos will fractal things into several of many possible directions.
    Let me give you an example. In the late 1990's, I was watching and playing with some stocks so I decided to go on yahoo and create three active watch lists. I probably had 10-15 stocks per watch list. They were priced on average from 1 dollar to about 23 dollars for the priciest one. I played with it for about a year, checking them every day, and then when I moved in 2000, I forgot about them. 14 years went by. Then just earlier this year, I was moving around on Yahoo using my handle Tradinginsider that Ive had since 1994 when I first signed up for Yahoo mail, and I stumbled upon these 4 old watch lists that I was using for Covered Call writing in the late 90's when the market kept on climbing and climbing. I found that even after 14 years, they were still active and Yahoo had been updating them daily.  I looked at them fascinated. I marked the lists Covered Calls, Covered Calls 2, Covered Calls 3, and the Dump list. So now its 14 years later, and lets take a look at them and what happened:


    As you can see, several things are apparent. First and foremost, there is only one home run that occurred out of the 41 stocks that I had listed. In addition, notice that the one home run, the pharmaceutical company ALXN, was the one I had placed on the above dump list because I didn't think based on its price action that it was going anywhere. Also notice how many of the stocks were no longer in business or had been bought out by other companies: you can see those are now in red where it says "No suck ticker symbol: (XYZ)" all over all 4 of the above watch lists. I mean, without a crystal ball, who knew how this was going to shake out 14 years later? In order to invest or make any money to find that one home run I would have had to place 1 or 2 grand on each one of the 41 stocks back in the late 1990's and spend $41,000 to $82,000 and then forget about the money and leave it parked for 14 years. It was a turkey shoot.
    When you are investing long term, a lot of things can go wrong. First, lets look at the Nasdaq from the late 1990's until now. 

    If you had gotten in at the late 90's you would have about come out even 14 years later. There were two crashes in the interim and if you had the steel balls not to sell and get your money out during the crash of 2000-2002, you probably would have thrown the hat in and given up during the crash of 2008. Lets say for example that you did leave your money in the market. Could you have stood to come out almost even over the course of 14 years, with inflation eating up your dollars at the rate of 4% a year? This is why 401Ks take a beating in the long term. No one knows where the corrections are going to be and for how long. 
    Lots of other things can go wrong when you invest long term. The companies officers could be stealing from the company and keeping two sets of books. This happened with Mercury Finance, and some other big energy companies such as Worldcom and Enron. As a matter of fact, a few of thier officers were taking money and building homes in Florida because the law says in Florida you can't seize a home built there because of a financial or custody court case. Companies can be chugging along and suddenly the market forces can change making their product obsolete, or the officers vision for emerging markets is faulty and the stock drops in price, goes out of business or gets bought out by another company. 
    You just don't know without a time machine. Investing in the long term is tough. Warren Buffet can do it. It takes a lot of talent, and a lot of vision. And a time machine. If I had a time machine, I would go back to the early 80's, mow a lot of lawns as a 13 year old, and caddy a lot for a couple of summers. I would then put a few grand in Microsoft in 1986 and sell it in 1999. So, anyone know of a good time machine?

    The Big Secret

    The best trading window to get around both problems that I covered above is a trading window of 2-3 days to 2 and a half weeks. First of all, you want to avoid the Market Makers territory by trading in and out in the same day. Especially trying to scalp tick by tick. You do that, and the MM will take all of your money. I knew a guy who sold his Pizza shop and scraped together 75 grand and daytraded it away. 
    With a 2-3 day to 2 and a half week window, you can stack the deck in your favor by going against the crowd. While I will cover about going against the crowd in a later post, I will cover how to trade using the big secret below using these two time frames:

    A) 2-3 days:  Go to the Yahoo finance page and look up the Earnings calendar, and look for stocks that report quarterly earnings that day 2-3 days in the future. Now look at their analysts expectations. If they are all low, and in the red, then go to stockcharts.com and check to see if the stock has been steadily climbing in price for the last week and a half leading up to earnings. If it has, and the analysts expectation is crap, and 3 out of the last 4 quarters there has been negative earnings surprises, this means that the crowd is wrong, the stock is going to report bad earnings, and the stock is going to drop. To go against the crowd, I would purchase a stock put on this stock (providing it is optionable) 2 days before it reports, and then the day of its earnings announcement, the stock will most likely drop and the put will jump in price. You then sell the put on the earnings date for a profit. The crowd is almost always wrong, you are profiting by going the opposite way of the crowd.

    B) 2-2 and a half weeks: Go to the Yahoo finance and look up the Earnings calendar and go out 2-2 and a half weeks. Go on down the list and look for stocks that have great analysts expectations with numbers that are in the black, and high. Look at their last 4 quarters. If 3 out of the last 4 quarters there has been earning surprises to the upside, then there is a good chance that this stock is going to do the 2 week climb leading up to earnings. Purchase call options at the money either for the current month if at the beginning of the month or the next month out. 2 days before the stock announces, sell your options for a profit after the stock climbed up. You want to sell two days early because trading insiders on the stock room floor start to leak the news out ahead of time and this can manipulate the price of the stock and cause it to start dropping early if the news is bad thus eroding our option price.


    In doing the above you will have to analyze the market first by looking at the QQQ charts first to determine which way you think the market is going to be going. If you have analysed that the market is going to be dropping over the next several days, you want to go with option A above. The market will aid your put drop, its like a beach ball (your stock) being carried on the wave of the ocean (the stock market). If you think that the market is going to be going up for the next 2-3 weeks from your analyzation of both the daily and the weekly charts for the QQQ (weekly is more for long term forecasting) then use option B above. The market will go up and drag your stock up with it, helping your call option to rise with it. 

    I run a website where I use the above everyday in order to make very large profits on a weekly basis. If what you read appeals to your financial sense, follow me on my financial site
    where I routinely make 30% EACH WEEK. Yes, you read that right. Most of you are lucky to make 15% a year. I make 30% a week. Follow me for a while, see what I do. And then see what I can do for you.
    www.the1045report.com
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    Great post! Get this man a beer!

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