Wednesday, September 23, 2015

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I have a craps system Ive been working on right here.

  • Wednesday, September 23, 2015
  • Mark Laechel
  • First of all I would like to say that I got ripped off by the website bettheseven.com. It has lots and lots of pages and pump you up sunshine so that you pull out your credit card.
    As it turns out, all it is is a betting sequence, something like a Martingale progression. Of course I didn't know that until after I pushed pay on the credit card ordering system.

    But the one good thing I got out of it was to bet on the seven. Just not the way they espoused. So check this out and follow along on the wizardofodds.com. It is a practice website for blackjack, craps, etc, and its free.

    You will be counting rolls of the dice and at first you will be not betting, just standing there counting. But don't worry. Its very little waiting around. A shooter 7s out, the dice gets passed to the new shooter. You don't bet, instead just watch him or her throw the dice. If they throw a point number and the puck gets slid over to 4,5,6,8,9.10 the count is now "1". If on their comeout throw and they throw anything else, you don't count it. They can throw in this order after they get the dice: 7,3,7,11,2,12,7, and the count is still 0. You only start to count after they make a point.
    Once they make that point and your count is "1" anything else that they throw next you count. ,12,4,8, etc would be "2". If they throw a 7 and seven out here, we simply start the whole thing over with the next shooter.
    Now, if you made it to "2" pay attention, because we are going to be betting on "3" and "4".
    After they make their point "1" and throw anything else without sevening out "2", before they roll again you are going to place 10 dollars on the 7. If they hit it, you get 40 bucks and then sit out until they hit 2 points in a row or 7 out. If a 7 doesnt show up on roll you just bet on, again you bet the seven (for the 4th throw after a point was made) but this time you increase by a dollar: you now put 11 dollars on the seven and wait for the next roll. If it hits, great, take your money and you are done until the shooter 7s out or makes two points in a row. If the 7 doens't hit again, you are also done until the shooter 7s out or makes two points in a row.

    If the shooter makes two points in a row, you are now going to start to bet on that shooter. Before they come out you will put the current amount of money you are at from your 7 betting (remember, evertime you lose an any 7 bet, the next is +1 unit on your 7 bet total) and you will put that amount on the pass line. If they throw a 7 or 11, take the money leave the original amount on the line. Replace any crap outs on the come out.

    You want one on the line, and 2 comebets out there working at all times until the shooter 7s out. If you hit 5-6 times, you can spread out to 3 come bets along with your line bet. If the shooter keeps holding the dice for 10 min more, you can start to slowly up your comebets 5-10 dollars per win until the shooter 7s out.

    So that can be a bit confusing, so lets go over the basics. When a new shooter gets the dice dont bet. Wait for a point number to be thrown and the puck to be slid over to that point number. That then is "1". Now any number that the shooter throws next (besides a 7 out) is "2".
    Now on #3 and #4 you are betting the 'Any 7' bet in the middle of the board (near the prop bets). You start with 10 dollars and every time you lose an 'Any 7' bet, the next time you bet it add one dollar to the bet.
    You will only be betting 'Any 7' on roll # 3 and roll #4 from the time a shooter came out and made a point.
    Why is this?  Most people hold the dice on average 3-4 rolls before a 7 shows up and they 7 out. Ever sit at an ice cold table? Ive seen tables like this for hours. Even at choppy tables where there are some hot shooters, there will still be a lot of quick 7 outs. At tables like this, you'll make bank.
    Then, when a shooter heats up, youll be on it with the three point molly (and then 4 points if he or she keeps going with a minor press).

    Sure there will be a lot of times you see a shooter make 2 points and then you jump in and they 7 out almost right away. Very frustrating. However, the betting on 'Any 7' on the third and fourth roll more than makes up for this with the law of averages working for you. Hot dice are an anomaly. Its not supposed to happen often. The way the dice are constructed with the law of averages? You should have a 7 out on average within the first 5 rolls of a new shooter.

    Money management: You don't want your statistical deviation to swing out of control so you start having monster bets out there that could really wack your bankroll. My rule of thumb is every +50 dollars I hit over the amount I came to the table with, I reset everything back to 10 bucks again and go from there. Lets go through a few hands.

    You walk up to the table. A couple of people check you out as you find an open spot on the rail and then thier attention goes back to the felt. You color in, the chips slid over to you. You get your bearings and see the next shooter as the dice are slid over to him. He grabs the dice, shakes them a bit and lets fly. 7. Everyone gets paid on the line except for you as you are not betting yet. Seeing that it was one of the 'garbage' numbers (not a point number) the count did not yet start. Kinda sucks seeing everyone get paid for the 7 but they are going to be the ones that are bust while you have a rackfull of chips. The dice have been slid over to the shooter again. He grabs and tosses them. "3!" Cries the stickman. No count. You wait. Dice to the shooter again, he wipes his hand on the felt then picks up the cubes, launching them across the table. The dice bounce and the stick says "5! The point is 5!" and the puck gets slid over to five. Ok. The count is now "1". Shooter gets the dice back and throws. Its a 3. Now your count is "2" as anything at this point he throws except for a 7 out is another number on our count.
    Now its showtime as there was a "1" and he just threw a "2" and now you will be betting on "3": 10 bucks on 'Any 7". You throw it to the stick, he puts it up. "7 out! line away!" The table groans, everyone loses their money, and you get paid. One guy looks sideways at you for a second, a bit annoyed you bet on the 7. He then looks down again. Too bad.
    Now back it up a few seconds. What if instead of a 7 the shooter threw a 2 or any other number besides 7? Then your count would be "4" and now its 10 bucks +1 dollar=$11 dollars on 'Any 7'. If the shooter throws a 7 you are paid. He doesn't. instead he hits the 5. He just made his point number.

    You do nothing now but wait. You need to see a 7 out or him hitting a second point number for anything to happen. He comes out and hits an 8. The point is now 8. And wouldnt you know it, he comes right back and bangs off another 8 and the table is cheering. Thats two points in a row, and now its time to act. You were currently at 11 bucks on the any 7 bets, so you put 11 bucks on the passline no odds. He throws a 7, you get paid. You keep 11 bucks on the passline. He throws a 6. You then slide over a comebet of 11 bucks, and he throws a 9. The comebet goes to the 9 and put no odds on it either. You put another comebet of 11 bucks up and he throws a 4. This goes over to 4 with no odds and now you are sitting pretty with 3 points up. Everytime you hit a comebet, it gets paid and comes down and you have to replace it as a new come bet so that you always have 3 points working. He 7s out and your bets get taken (hopefully after you made some money) or he doesn't 7 out and has a hot roll. After winning 6-7 bets you spread out a bit and now have 4 points out there (the line plus 3 comebets) and sit back and take those wins for a bit, say 10 minutes or so, 6-7 hits. Then if you want start to slowly increase the bets by 5-10 bucks a hit on to your base whatever number you are at (from your any 7 bets amount your are currently at).

    Here is the concept:


    1. You are betting the 7 on the third and 4th roll after a new shooter established their point after they got the dice. You start with 10 bucks and add a dollar each time you lose an 'Any 7' bet so that you have a running bet of +1 after each loss. You could be at 32 dollars. 50 dollars. But remember: every time your RUNNING amount of total money on your rack is +50 dollars from the time you arrived at the table, reset the base betting amount back down to 10 dollars. This prevents things from getting out of control during bad swings.
    2. Any time a shooter 7s out and its a new shooter, start the count over. However you are still at the current bet level for your any7s as you have been adding a dollar every time you lose the any 7 bet. You could be at 25, 52, etc due to the previous shooters never hitting a 7 on the 3rd and 4th roll. However chances say that you wont see 45 dollars before the table hits a cold streak and you get paid heavy especially since you are at the higher number. What do you do everytime you are +50? Thats right. You reset to 10 dollars.
    3. If a shooter makes 2 point in a row, you bet the line on that shooter, then 2 come numbers on that shooter for 3 working points total. Spread to 4 points total and then up bets 5-10 dollars here and there as you win if the shooter is having a monster hand. 7 out? Start all over with new shooter. The amount to bet on the line and the come bets? Whatever number you are currently on in your 'Any 7' betting as that is the only thing that gets carried over from shooter to shooter. So you may have been having bad luck on your 3rd and 4th roll 'Any 7' bets and now you are at 50 dollars. So 50 goes on the line, and 50 each for 2 come bets.
    Particulars: Cold streaks are common at tables. You'll make bank at those. only bet on 7 the 3rd and 4th roll. If you disobey this and keep betting the 7 because you 'think its due' you are going to start losing money. Ive seen the 7 not hit for over 150 rolls. You want the AVERAGE of everyone at the table. Which is why for each shooter you bet only the 3rd and 4th roll 'Any 7'. 
    Then if they hit two points in a row, you get on them with a 3 point Molly: bet the line and two come bets.

    Try this out on a gambling simulator. I've been playing it and my balance keeps growing, its pretty crazy. If you are going to Vegas or a local riverboat, I would say that min you need 1g to play this at a 10 dollar table. a 15 dollar table I would have a grand and a half, and at a 25 minimum table, you guessed it I would have 2.5 grand with me on the rail. Never have a short bank, it won't handle the swings and it could bust you out.

    Tradinginsider


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    Tuesday, September 1, 2015

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    How to find out who's crazy at the library

  • Tuesday, September 1, 2015
  • Mark Laechel
  • Here is a simple filter based on the assumption that crazy people have a lower tolerance threshold than normal people as they have not fully formed their boundaries between their ego, id and superego and learned to channel them in a socially appropriate way that socially furthers them in society whether it be at work, at home, or out in public.
    Im sitting there on my computer and the P.A. system goes on. Sounds like someone took the microphone off the hook and is fumbling it. They continue to fumble it with loud loudspeaker fumbling noises amplified several times over the PA system. Fumble Fumble Fumble. Rustle, Rustle, Rustle. More fumbling. Then it sounds like the person (or the lady or the kid in the back room) decided that they didn't have anything to say after all or maybe their cell phone rang, so now amidst the fumbling and jostling you now hear a microphone or phone being hung up. But incorrectly , as the PA system is still on, and now since the microphone is too near the broadcasting base, a feedback loop initiates and starts to swell into a loud shriek. Its not stopping. Different waves of feedback rolling back to and fro, building up and falling back then settling on a note, then getting louder. Maybe the US dollar just collapsed. Maybe a gunman just got in through the back door and shot everyone. I was wondering who the first customer would be to freak out. I soon found out.

    Weird Guy in over-sized Cowboy Hat with Mustache: "What in the fuck is this supposed to be? HUH??"

    Older lady sitting in chair reading book: Face starts to twitch, starts picking eyebrows while still reading

    Weird Guy in over-sized Cowboy Hat with Mustache: "Seriously, what the FUCK"

    Shriek shriek Shriek

    One guy runs out of the library zipping his bag.

    W.G.I.O.C.H.W.M.: "Is this supposed to be a fucking FIRE??
     Looking both ways and then getting up, his cowboy hat very pointy.
    "TURN THAT SHIT OFF!!!"
    it looked like he either had chew in his mouth or a toothpick or something. Kinda like a crazy Burt Reynolds circa 1976.

    The rest of everyone else remained calm and sat there waiting for the doofus to hang up the PA. Because the normal people can deal with a stressor.
    That would be a great tactic in a job interview. Have something going off in the room and have the interviewer ignore it or tell the interviewee that maintenance is working on that right now, and its just a false alarm. And see how the person handles it. If they cant handle it, they wont be able to handle the job or working with other people.
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    Great post! Get this man a beer!

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