Thursday, July 14, 2016

0

How to win at Craps

  • Thursday, July 14, 2016
  • Mark Laechel
  • Share
  • Here is how to win at Craps.

    I once found a book that discussed statistical compression. Basically, it stated that events that are supposed to happen within a given statistical frame sometimes do not happen in that frame. But if they dont, they tend to come in bursts of events closely spaced together in clumps until the statistics even out in the big picture.

    Lets take the probability of rolling a 3 or a 11. The house pays this off at 15:1. The true odds that it should pay off is 17:1, and this gives a house edge of  11.11%. If you roll the dice a few hundred times you will notice that the 3 or 11 comes about once every 15 times or so. The reason for this probability is due to the construction of the dice. The dice has 6 sides and there is only one way to make a 3: the two dice as tossed have to come up with an ace (one dot) and a deuce (side with two dots). If a machine were set up to toss these two dice in a random way forever, the probability line would at first be chaotic, but then would flatten out to a certain once every 17 rolls.

    However in the shorter term, you will notice something happen from time to time. When there is a drought of a 3 or 11 being rolled, such as 40 or 50 rolls going by without one of these numbers, once a 3 or an 11 does hit, there tends to be a bunch of those 3 or 11 hits happen in a very short time until there is statistical balance, i.e. a balanced out number of 3 or 11s per the total amount of rolls in question. So lets say there was 70 rolls that went by without a 3 or and 11. Then a 3 or an 11 hits. At 70 rolls, with everything being even, there should have been 70/17 hits of 3 or 11. That is, there should have been 70 (total rolls so far) divided by 17 (probability of a hit once every 17 rolls) at this point. So we are in statisitical deficit. And the dice usually want to even that out quick with a burst of 3s and 11s.

    This is where I get into an argument with statisticians. According to the math, each roll is independent of any rolls before it, the dice have no memory, and therefore there is no such thing as statistical pressure. There is no "Pressure" for a 3 or an 11 to hit.
    But if that were the case, how does the casino set odds? They know there is long term pressure for the dice to perform in certain ways, and due to the physical contruction of the dice, they know that certain events will happen so many times out of so many tosses that they can set odds to it and make money long term.
    Its a real brain burner. However, I have been playing craps for 20 years and have seen this over and over again. If the 2 or 12 havent hit for 100 rolls or more, when one does hit, suddenly a see a few 12s get rolled almost in a row, as if the dice are suddenly balancing things out again. The same with 3 and 11.

    So with that said, here is my system.

    Come up to the table, and buy in with 200-300 dollars. You are going to be doing two things at once...counting how many times since the last 3 or 11, and counting how many times since the last 2 or 12.

    Here is the gist. If 15 rolls go by without a 3 or 11, bet 1 dollar on the 3 and one dollar on the 11 for 6 rolls. When it hits, stop betting and start over, counting to 15 rolls without a 3 or an 11. If 6 rolls go by with you betting each time on the 3 or 11 a dollar apiece without a hit, stop betting after the 6th roll, and wait until a 3 or an 11 hits, then start counting for 15 rolls of no 3 or an 11.

    If during the time you are counting up to 15 a 3 or an 11 hits, that blows it, and you have to start over the count. You may have to start over many times.

    At the same time, you will be counting up to 30 before you put a dollar on the 2 and a dollar on the 12, and you will make this bet 10 times in a row. If at any time during those 10 times in a row your bet hits, take the money and start counting again at 1. If at any time a 2 or a 12 hits during your count up to 30, you have to start the count at 1.

    You will only be betting on the 3 or 11 after 15 rolls have gone by without a 3 or 11.
    You will only be betting on the 2 or 12 after 30 rolls have gone by without a 2 or 12.

    You will bet 6 rolls on the 3 or 11,
    You will bet 10 rolls on the 2 or 12.

    I myself have a thing to keep track of my chips. I come up with my 200 dollars and get red 5 dollar chips. Then I ask for 20 one dollar chips. When I am counting, I use a white chip as a marker, inserting a red 5 dollar chip every toss of the dice without a 3 or 15 so I can quickly count and see where I am in the 15 count.

    Sometimes if 60 rolls go by without a 3 or an 11, I will switch up: when a 3 or an 11 finally get thrown, I then launch a 10 step bet of a dollar on the 3 or 11. Each time it hits, I start betting again right away and dont stop betting until I lose 10 in a row. This way I take advantage of a clump of hits that are coming across as the odds try to straighten themselves out.

    The above paragraph is only when there is an absense of 11 or 3 for like 60 rolls and an absense of 2 or 12 for over 100 rolls.

    Now lests go through some examples.
    We get to the table and here is the rolls we watch:
    4,6,7,8,6,4,11 (shit, gotta start over the 3 and 11 count only got to roll #7, trying to get to roll #15 before we start betting) 5,6,12 (shit, now start over the 2 and 12 count) 5,6,7,7,7,2 (start over 2 and 12 count) 7, 5,6,8,4,8 (now launch 3 and 11 betting for 6 bets) 4,3 (winner, take our money payoff, start count over again for 3 and 11)8, 9,4,8,5,6,7,7,4,3,3 (start over 3 and 11 count to zero again) 5,6,9,10,4 (now launch 10 bet on 2 and 12) 4,12 (Hit!! take the money, reset 2 and 12 count to zero.)

    Now...if you are in a betting sequence and it does not hit during your six step 3 and 11, or your ten step 2 and 12 betting sequence, remember, you have to wait until you see the 3 or 11 until you reset the count to 0 and start counting. This is to eliminate the crazy long streaks that occur every now and then where the 3 or 11 doenst show up for 50 rolls or more. And if you do see a crazy long streak, remember you can change it up like described in the above underlined paragraph 3 paragraphs up.

    Go ahead. Try it on the wizard of odds.com  Choose the version 2 craps, more updated. Once you are comfortable with the system you can try it live at a casino.

    A word about the casino. If you are betting on the 2 and 12 they wont let you put one bet on the 2, and one bet on the 12. They will just split it. The payoff for your bet will be the same because at half odds, your bet will be doubled for both, so the money recived back will be the same after a hit. Just tell them "Hi Low" which is slang for 2-12 bet. If you want to bet on the 3 and 11, toss them your bet and say " Ace-Deuce- Yo" and they will split it on the 3 and 11. A word about the 3 and 11. The payoff will be slightly lower because they cant split 15 to 1. They instead pay 7 to 1 instead of 7.5 to one. But the hi low bet will pay correctly at 30 to 1 pays off at 15 to 1.

    Good luck. Any questions, leave as comment below.

    Tradinginsider

    0 Responses to “How to win at Craps”

    Great post! Get this man a beer!

    Subscribe